US--Election 2026-House                07/14 06:08

   Trump's Big Bill Shapes Battle For House Control 

   Debate over President Donald Trump's sweeping budget-and-policy package is 
over on Capitol Hill. Now the argument goes national.

   WASHINGTON (AP) -- Debate over President Donald Trump's sweeping 
budget-and-policy package is over on Capitol Hill. Now the argument goes 
national.

   From the Central Valley of California to Midwestern battlegrounds and 
suburban districts of the northeast, the new law already is shaping the 2026 
midterm battle for control of the House of Representatives. The outcome will 
set the tone for Trump's final two years in the Oval Office.

   Democrats need a net gain of three House seats to break the GOP's chokehold 
on Washington and reestablish a power center to counter Trump. There's added 
pressure to flip the House given that midterm Senate contests are concentrated 
in Republican-leaning states, making it harder for Democrats to reclaim that 
chamber.

   As Republicans see it, they've now delivered broad tax cuts, an 
unprecedented investment in immigration enforcement and new restraints on 
social safety net programs. Democrats see a law that rolls back health 
insurance access and raises costs for middle-class Americans while cutting 
taxes mostly for the rich, curtailing green energy initiatives and restricting 
some workers' organizing rights.

   "It represents the broken promise they made to the American people," said 
Rep. Suzan DelBene, a Washington Democrat who chairs the party's House campaign 
arm. "We're going to continue to hold Republicans accountable for this vote."

   Parties gear up for a fight

   Whether voters see it that way will be determined on a district-by-district 
level, but the battle will be more intense in some places than others. Among 
the 435 House districts, only 69 contests were decided by less than 10 
percentage points in the 2024 general election.

   The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has so far identified 26 
Democratic-held seats it must defend vigorously, along with 35 GOP-held seats 
it believes could be ripe to flip. Republicans' campaign arm, the National 
Republican Congressional Committee, has so far listed 18 GOP incumbents as 
priorities, plus two districts opened by retirements.

   There are a historically low number of so-called crossover districts: Only 
13 Democrats represent districts Trump carried in 2024, while just three 
Republicans serve districts Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris 
carried.

   Both committees are busy recruiting challengers and open-seat candidates and 
more retirements could come, so the competitive map will evolve. Still, there 
are clusters of districts guaranteed to influence the national result.

   California, despite its clear lean to Democrats statewide, has at least nine 
House districts expected to be up for grabs: three in the Central Valley and 
six in southern California. Six are held by Democrats, three by the GOP.

   Pennsylvania features four districts that have been among the closest 
national House races for several consecutive cycles. They include a suburban 
Philadelphia seat represented by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, one of just two House 
Republicans to vote against Trump's bill and one of the three GOP lawmakers 
from a district Harris won. Fitzpatrick cited the Medicaid cuts.

   Vice President JD Vance plans on Wednesday to be in Republican Rep. Rob 
Bresnahan's northwest Pennsylvania district to tout the GOP package. 
Bresnahan's seat is a top Democratic target.

   Iowa and Wisconsin, meanwhile, feature four contiguous GOP-held districts in 
farm-heavy regions where voters could be swayed by fallout from Trump's tariffs.

   Democrats fight to define the GOP

   Beyond bumper-sticker labels -- Trump's preferred "Big Beautiful Bill" 
versus Democrats' "Big Ugly Bill" retort -- the 900-page law is, in fact, an 
array of policies with varying impact.

   Democrats hammer Medicaid and food assistance cuts, some timed to take full 
effect only after the 2026 midterms, along with Republicans' refusal to extend 
tax credits to some people who obtained health insurance through the Affordable 
Care Act.

   The Congressional Budget Office estimates that 11.8 million more Americans 
would become uninsured by 2034 if the bill became law; 3 million more would not 
qualify for food stamps, also known as SNAP benefits.

   "Folks will die here in Louisiana and in other parts of the country," House 
Minority Leader Jeffries warned last week during a town hall in Republican 
Speaker Mike Johnson's home state of Louisiana.

   Jeffries singled out vulnerable Republicans like California Rep. David 
Valadao, who represents a heavily agricultural Central Valley district where 
more than half the population is eligible for the joint state-federal insurance 
program. California allows immigrants with legal status and those who are 
undocumented to qualify for Medicaid, so not all Medicaid recipients are 
voters. But the program helps finance the overall health care system, including 
nursing homes and hospitals.

   Republicans highlight the law's tightened work requirements for Medicaid 
enrollees. They argue it's a popular provision that will strengthen the program.

   "I voted for this bill because it does preserve the Medicaid program for its 
intended recipients -- children, pregnant women, the disabled, and elderly," 
Valadao said. "I know how important the program is for my constituents."

   Republicans hope voter s see lower taxes

   The law includes $4.5 trillion in tax cuts. It makes permanent existing 
rates and brackets approved during Trump's first term. Republicans and their 
allies have hammered vulnerable Democrats for "raising costs" on American 
households by opposing the bill.

   GOP campaign aides point to the popularity of individual provisions: 
boosting the $2,000 child tax credit to $2,200 (some families at lower income 
levels would not get the full credit), new deductions on tip and overtime 
income and auto loans; and a new deduction for older adults earning less than 
$75,000 a year.

   "Everyone will have more take home pay. They'll have more jobs and 
opportunity," Johnson said in a Fox News Sunday interview. "The economy will be 
doing better and we'll be able to point to that as the obvious result of what 
we did."

   Democrats note that the biggest beneficiaries of Trump's tax code are 
wealthy Americans and corporations. Pairing that with safety net cuts, Florida 
Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz concluded, "The cruelty is the point."

   Immigration, meanwhile, was Trump's strongest issue in 2024. NRCC aides say 
that will continue with the new law's investments in immigration enforcement. 
Democrats believe the Trump administration has overplayed its hand with its 
push for mass deportation.

   Playing the Trump card

   The president is a titanic variable.

   Democrats point to 2018, when they notched a 40-seat net gain in House seats 
to take control away from the GOP. This year, Democrats have enjoyed a 
double-digit swing in special elections around the country when compared to 
2024 presidential results. Similar trends emerged in 2017 after Trump's 2016 
victory. Democrats say that reflects voter discontent with Trump once he's 
actually in charge.

   Republicans answer that Trump's job approval remains higher at this point 
than in 2017. But the GOP's effort is further complicated by ongoing 
realignments: Since Trump's emergence, Democrats have gained affluent white 
voters --- like those in suburban swing districts --- while Trump has drawn 
more working-class voters across racial and ethnic groups. But Republicans face 
a stiffer challenge of replicating Trump's coalition in a midterm election 
without him on the ballot.

   Democrats, meanwhile, must corral voters who are not a threat to vote for 
Republicans but could stay home.

   Jeffries said he's determined not to let that happen: "We're going to do 
everything we can until we end this national nightmare."